What do Experts Forecast for the 2026 Housing Market?

What to Expect from the 2026 Housing Market

A lot of people are asking what the housing market will look like in 2026. No one can predict the future with certainty, but we can look at trends and expert forecasts to get a clear picture. Many want to know if a crash is coming, if it will get easier to buy or sell, and how rates will shape the market. Here’s a simple breakdown of what we’re seeing.

Affordability and Lock-In Problem

Homeownership has become harder over the last few years because:

• Prices went up fast
• Interest rates increased
• Insurance costs climbed

Higher monthly payments pushed many buyers to the sidelines. At the same time, sellers have been stuck because of the lock in effect. Many homeowners have very low interest rates on their current homes and do not want to give them up. That kept inventory low and reduced the number of homes sold. Since the 2021 peak, home sales are down by about 35%.

Price Expectations for 2026

National forecasts show an expected 2% to 4% increase in home values.
In the Charleston Tri County area, most signs point to 2% to 10% appreciation depending on the neighborhood. Some markets will rise faster than others.

A few markets are losing value, especially certain areas in Florida, Texas, and Nevada. These are places that usually climb faster than the rest of the country and then come down harder. Still, no credible forecast calls for a nationwide crash.

Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading

Most experts expect rates to stay in the high 5’s to low 6% range. Today, buyers can usually get a rate in the 6% range. With certain programs, we can even get buyers into the 4% range, but those require a direct conversation.

When rates drop toward the mid 5% range, many sellers with low current rates are expected to finally move. Surveys show that 5.5% is the “magic number” where most people feel comfortable giving up their old rate.

How Rates Affect Buyer and Seller Behavior

If rates rise, expect:

• Fewer bidding wars
• Higher inventory
• Slower appreciation

If rates fall, expect:

• More sellers entering the market
• More buyers returning
• Tighter inventory
• More bidding wars and faster appreciation

This is why the timing of rate changes matters so much. The market could lean toward buyers in early 2026, but it could swing back toward sellers depending on how rates move.

What This Means for You

If you are waiting for rates to drop, that may backfire. Once rates fall, competition will surge and negotiating power will disappear. Buyers who wait may miss the window where they can negotiate on price and still secure a good rate through special programs.

Sellers should not feel stuck either. There are ways to secure a low rate on the next home, even if they currently have a great rate on their existing one.

A Real Example

David and Melissa in West Ashley had a 3.25% rate. They thought moving was impossible. After running the numbers, they learned:

• Their home had gained a lot of equity
• That equity could become a strong down payment
• They qualified for a rate in the low 4% range
• They could negotiate money off the price of the next home

We found homes they liked and figured out how much we could negotiate off those prices. Once they saw the numbers, they realized their payment on a larger, newer home would only be slightly higher. They moved forward, sold their home for $15,000 over asking price, and ended up in a better financial position than if they had waited for 2026.

The Bottom Line

Opportunities exist right now. The people who win are the ones who take time to understand their options and act instead of waiting for the perfect moment.

If you want to explore your options, call us at (843) 972 3833, click the links below, or visit davefriedmanteam.com. We can walk you through the numbers so you can make a clear and confident decision.